The NCSC's second assessment judges that AI will almost certainly make elements of intrusion more effective through 2027, with AI-assisted vulnerability research and exploit development the most significant development. It warns that the window between disclosure and exploitation, already days, will shrink further, and judges fully automated end-to-end advanced attacks unlikely before 2027.
Why it matters
It is a government forecast on autonomous attack timelines that 2026 frontier model evidence can be tested against.
Key facts
As stated in the sources, with where to find them.
- The most significant AI cyber development will highly likely come from AI-assisted vulnerability research and exploit development (VRED).Key judgements
- Fully automated, end-to-end advanced cyber attacks are judged unlikely to 2027; skilled actors will need to remain in the loop but will almost certainly keep experimenting with automating elements of the attack chain.Key judgements
- Integration of AI into critical national infrastructure almost certainly increases the attack surface, including via prompt injection, software vulnerabilities and supply chain attacks.Key judgements
Findings that cite this record
No tracked finding cites this record yet.
Key questions this bears on
- How are attackers using AI agents in real operations?Increasingly to run parts of intrusions: providers and vendors report agent-driven espionage, extortion and credential theft, and malware that queries LLMs.
Sources
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