The NCSC's near-term assessment judged that AI would almost certainly increase the volume and heighten the impact of cyber attacks over the following two years, with uneven effects across actor types. It identified social engineering and reconnaissance as the areas of greatest uplift, and judged that more advanced uses would remain limited to actors with quality data, expertise and resources through 2025.
Why it matters
It is a government intelligence-style baseline for how AI changes the cyber threat, against which later assessments (2025, 2026) can be compared.
Key facts
As stated in the sources, with where to find them.
- Headline judgement: AI will almost certainly increase the volume and heighten the impact of cyber attacks over the next two years (to 2025).Key judgements
- Highly capable state actors are assessed as best placed to develop AI-enabled malware and exploits; novice criminals and hacktivists gain uplift in access operations from a low base.Key judgements, actor breakdown
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Sources
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