{
 "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
 "attribution": "Fide AI, Agentic Cyber Explorer",
 "url": "https://agentic-cyber-explorer.pages.dev/events/ncsc-ai-cyber-threat-to-2027-2025/",
 "asOf": "2026-09-26",
 "id": "ncsc-ai-cyber-threat-to-2027-2025",
 "date": "2025-05-07",
 "datePrecision": "day",
 "title": "UK NCSC judges AI-assisted vulnerability research is the most significant AI cyber development to 2027",
 "lane": "policy",
 "kind": "guidance",
 "summary": "The NCSC's second assessment judges that AI will almost certainly make elements of intrusion more effective through 2027, with AI-assisted vulnerability research and exploit development the most significant development. It warns that the window between disclosure and exploitation, already days, will shrink further, and judges fully automated end-to-end advanced attacks unlikely before 2027.",
 "whyItMatters": "It is a government forecast on autonomous attack timelines that 2026 frontier model evidence can be tested against.",
 "actors": [
  "ncsc-uk"
 ],
 "topics": [
  "threat-intelligence",
  "vulnerability-discovery",
  "exploit-development"
 ],
 "atlas": [],
 "artifacts": [],
 "sources": [
  {
   "url": "https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/report/impact-ai-cyber-threat-now-2027",
   "publisher": "UK National Cyber Security Centre",
   "title": "Impact of AI on cyber threat from now to 2027",
   "date": "2025-05-07",
   "type": "primary",
   "accessed": "2026-09-25"
  }
 ],
 "keyFacts": [
  {
   "fact": "The most significant AI cyber development will highly likely come from AI-assisted vulnerability research and exploit development (VRED).",
   "locator": "Key judgements"
  },
  {
   "fact": "Fully automated, end-to-end advanced cyber attacks are judged unlikely to 2027; skilled actors will need to remain in the loop but will almost certainly keep experimenting with automating elements of the attack chain.",
   "locator": "Key judgements"
  },
  {
   "fact": "Integration of AI into critical national infrastructure almost certainly increases the attack surface, including via prompt injection, software vulnerabilities and supply chain attacks.",
   "locator": "Key judgements"
  }
 ],
 "significance": 4,
 "fideQuestions": [],
 "methods": [
  "ai-assisted-exploitation"
 ],
 "review": "assistant-drafted",
 "addedOn": "2026-09-25"
}