{
 "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
 "attribution": "Fide AI, Agentic Cyber Explorer",
 "url": "https://agentic-cyber-explorer.pages.dev/findings/cyber-time-horizons-doubling/",
 "asOf": "2026-09-26",
 "id": "cyber-time-horizons-doubling",
 "claim": "Under a 2.5M-token cap, frontier cyber task time horizons doubled on the order of months between late 2024 and early 2026.",
 "evidenceKind": "measured",
 "scope": "One evaluator's task suite at a fixed budget.",
 "topics": [
  "capability-evaluation"
 ],
 "atlas": [],
 "evidence": [
  {
   "event": "aisi-cyber-time-horizons-2026"
  }
 ],
 "relations": [],
 "statusHistory": [
  {
   "status": "reported",
   "on": "2026-05-13",
   "why": "UK AISI estimates cyber time-horizon doubling.",
   "event": "aisi-cyber-time-horizons-2026",
   "kind": "evidence"
  },
  {
   "status": "qualified",
   "on": "2026-07-02",
   "why": "UK AISI later shows fixed budgets understate capability, so the trend is a lower bound.",
   "event": "uk-aisi-test-time-compute-agent-evals-2026",
   "kind": "evidence"
  }
 ],
 "halfLifeDays": 240,
 "wouldChange": "A remeasurement with scaled budgets and cheating controls.",
 "fideQuestions": [
  "FID-075"
 ],
 "methods": [
  "compute-scaled-evaluation",
  "ctf-benchmarks"
 ],
 "review": "assistant-drafted",
 "addedOn": "2026-09-25"
}